AIR FREIGHT CAPACITY RECOVERY REMAINS UNEVEN

July’s air freight market reveals a complex picture of returning capacity that is being quickly absorbed, with geopolitical stability emerging as the main wildcard for planning.

Industry analysis shows passenger-plane belly capacity stabilising in selected lanes, freighter schedules improving in stages, and Middle East carrier connectivity from the Indian Subcontinent recovering as regional airspace disruptions ease. However, restored and incremental capacity is being absorbed quickly in several lanes, with load factors remaining high.

The Indian Subcontinent presents the clearest example of how a softer-demand market can still tighten in execution. Carriers reported planes being 90–95% full, with scheduled freighters overbooked from western and southern India. This tightening resulted from multiple constraints aircraft-on-ground cancellations, operating limits at Mumbai airport, reduced payloads, and pauses on new bookings. Spot rates into Europe increased approximately 5%, while US-bound rates rose nearly 10%, reversing the recent downward pricing trend.

B2B Implications

For travel trade stakeholders involved in cargo operations or tour product logistics, the message is clear scheduled capacity and usable capacity are not interchangeable. Earlier forecasting and confirmed booking acceptance are essential, particularly for perishable goods, premium commodities, and time-sensitive cargo. The EU’s July 1 customs changes removing the €150 duty exemption for low-value imports are reshaping Asia-Europe booking patterns, with shippers reassessing freight flows through greater consolidation.