OECD WARNS MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT WEIGHING ON GLOBAL TOURISM OUTLOOK

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to cast a shadow over global tourism recovery, according to the OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 report released this week.

International tourist arrivals in OECD countries rose 3.4% in 2025 to reach a record 847 million, building on strong 8.1% growth in 2024. However, the OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasised that “governments and businesses need to work together to sustain this growth and build resilience,” warning that the Middle East conflict has disrupted global travel flows, increased costs, and weighed on traveller confidence.

The report reveals a tale of two recoveries. Four countries recorded double-digit growth in 2025—Finland (16.5%), Japan (15.8%), Korea (15.7%), and Norway (12.5%)—aided by expanded connectivity and a weak yen in Japan and Korea. Meanwhile, international arrivals fell in Canada (-0.6%), Germany (-0.8%), Ireland (-2.8%), and the United States (-5.5%). Inbound tourism in Israel has been significantly impacted, with arrivals remaining 70.8% below pre-pandemic levels.

Concerns about safety, affordability, and cancellations may influence travellers to favour more familiar and affordable destinations, shorter stays, and lower-cost options. One-third of OECD countries expect tourism performance to exceed 2025 levels by year-end, with many breaking new records.

B2B Implications

Destinations reliant on Gulf air connectivity face persistent challenges as airlines and tour operators adjust their 2027 programmes. For B2B partners, the message is clear: strengthen crisis preparedness, diversify source markets, and anticipate changing travel patterns shaped by evolving geopolitical risks. The report underscores the importance of managing visitor flows to ensure the sector delivers lasting benefits.