Indian festive airfares are soaring — and capacity is the culprit

India’s festive travel market is producing one of the clearest commercial signals of the week: fares are rising sharply even though overall seat capacity has not collapsed.

According to analysis using OAG data, domestic flight frequencies for October–December are down 5% year on year, while seat capacity is down only 1.2%.

Average one-way fares have risen:

• 68% on Delhi–Hyderabad
• 51% on Mumbai–Kolkata
• 39% on Delhi–Goa
• 37% on Mumbai–Bengaluru

International capacity is moving differently: planned international flights are up 3% and seats 2% year on year. Capacity to Saudi Arabia is up 22%, while Thailand is down 8%. China capacity is reported to have quadrupled.

This is arguably the biggest commercial travel story of 5 October.

For agents, hotels and tour operators, it means dynamic packaging and early inventory locking are becoming increasingly important. That connects directly with the shorter-break outbound travel trend.

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